Good start today; the rate markets opened stronger on the continuing weak dollar and slowly improving technicals. At 8:30 the 10 yr +8/32 3.39% -3 BP, mortgage prices +3/32; the DJIA futures +50. At 9:00 the 10 yr +8/32 3.39%, mortgage prices +3/32 and the DJIA +51, markets quiet. At 9:30 the DJIA opened +55, the 10 yr +7/32 and mortgage prices +3/32.
8:30 brought Oct retail sales; expected to be +0.9% overall and ex autos +0.4%, as released sales were +1.4% overall and ex autos +0.2%. Initial reaction boosted rate prices a little and softened the stock index improvement but within minutes stock indexes bounced back and the rate markets backed off to where they were trading prior to the report. Retail sales are increasingly of interest to markets as we move into the Holiday shopping season. Retailers are racing to get what there is out there from consumers, normally late holiday price reductions are happening now.
Also at 8:30 the NY Empire State manufacturing data; the overall index declined to 23.51 frm 34.57 in Oct and lower than the 30 index expected. New orders index at 16.66 was down from 30.82 in Oct, employment index fell to 1/3 frm 10.39 and prices paid declined to 10.53 frm 19.48. The various regional manufacturing reports have been choppy recently, to the extent traders are not concerned with them as in the past (any index read over zero is considered expansion).
The final report today; at 10:00 Sept business inventories, expected to be down 0.7%, were down 0.4% with final sales -0.3%. The inventory to sales ratio at 1.32 months, unchanged from August. No reaction to the report as usual.
The retail sales data this morning is one of the half full, half empty things. The overall including auto sales was stronger than expected while ex autos sales were weaker than expected. One interpretation that has grabbed markets is that auto sales are remaining firm after clunker incentives, therefore consumers are opening their purses. The other view, the anti-equity market view, is that the weaker ex autos up just 0.2% implies consumers remain conservative and unwilling to spend heavily.
10 yr treasury remains stick between 3.40% and 3.56%, the range that has continued it for over a month now. Mortgages however have been slightly more positive as investors look for better yields. This morning so far, once again the 10 yr is slamming into resistance at 3.40%, took it to 3.39% early but no follow-through and now back to 3.40%.
Market Minute information for November 13, 2009 provided by:
 Patsy Bailey Mortgage Banker |
 4801 Lang Ave NE Suite 100 Albuquerque, NM 87109 4001 Office Court Ste 603 Sante Fe, NM 87507 Cell: 505.715.3231 Office: 505.473.4045 ext.109 E-mail: patsybailey13@gmail.com |
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